A stretch of severe weather is expected to impact Oxford and Lafayette County from Wednesday through Saturday, with the potential for tornadoes, heavy rainfall, and flooding.

While the threat may be slightly higher to the north and west, local meteorologists are urging residents to stay weather-aware as the Mid-South prepares for several days of hazardous conditions.

Matt Laubhan, Chief Meteorologist for WTVA, explained that it’s “entirely reasonable” to expect tornadoes near Oxford during this period, with conditions favorable for severe storms each day.

“It’s not unreasonable any day from Wednesday through Saturday to have tornadoes near the Oxford area. The threat might be a little greater to the north and west, but it’s certainly on the table for Oxford,” Laubhan said. “It’s very unusual for me to say there’s a reasonable argument for tornadoes for four straight days, but this time, there is.”

A cold front expected to move through the region will increase the chances for severe weather, including damaging winds, large hail and strong tornadoes. The front is also forecast to stall over the I-40 corridor, contributing to substantial rainfall across the area. Depending on how the system shifts, some areas, including Oxford, could see up to 7 to 8 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service.

“Flooding is a significant concern,” Laubhan said. “If the system shifts southeast, we could see a lot of rain in areas south of us, but we’ll still see significant rain here as well. South Arkansas, Memphis, Jackson, and even Nashville are at risk for the heaviest rainfall, but it’s still something to watch closely.”

The National Weather Service has issued an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for severe weather in Lafayette County from Wednesday through Saturday, meaning residents should be prepared for the possibility of strong tornadoes and damaging storms. A Flood Watch has also been issued for the area, effective from 1 p.m. on Wednesday until 7 a.m. on Sunday.

Oxford in a bubble?

Though the area has experienced a relatively quiet stretch of severe weather recently, Laubhan stressed the importance of not underestimating the potential for danger this week.

“We’ve had a good stretch, but don’t let that make you think it can’t happen here,” Laubhan said. “Stay weather-aware, and make sure you’re prepared in case severe weather strikes.”

Sometimes storms seem to hop over Oxford and Lafayette County on their way east, but Laubhan said that this is not the result of any special geographic or atmospheric condition.

“It’s 100% imagination,” Laubhan said. “Over short periods, sure, you might have a few years where storms don’t hit as hard. The terrain can have some impact, but it’s not significant enough in Lafayette County. It’s just been luck.”

Laubhan also pointed to the area’s history with severe weather, noting incidents like the tornado that struck the Caterpillar plant on the north side of town years ago.

“When you look at Lafayette County, most of the tornadoes that have hit have been EF1 or EF0, which are weaker,” Laubhan said. “So, it’s not that the area is immune, it’s just that it’s been a lucky stretch.”

Laubhan pointed out that Mississippi’s storms tend to move fast and can be strong.

“Also, with manufactured housing being more common in the South, there’s a greater risk to structures. The one thing that does help is the fear of the unknown,” he said. “People in the South tend to have more respect and fear for tornadoes because they know they can’t see them coming, and that causes them to take shelter more seriously.”